November Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) How much further can tax cuts take us? Happy Halloween! ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  November 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS……….Productivity………….Thu, 2nd BEA……….GDP & Profits…..……Wed, 29th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Wed, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Fri, 3rd BLS………….Employment…………   Fri, 3rd Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Tue, 7th BLS…………Producer prices……. Tue, 14th Census………….Inventories………. Wed, 15th BLS……….Consumer prices.….. Wed, 15th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Thu, 16th Census………Housing starts…….Fri, 17th NAR………Existing-home sales….Tue, 21st Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 22nd Census……..New-home sales…… Mon, 27th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 28th *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce *BLS = Bureau of Labor Continue reading

November Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) How much further can tax cuts take us?   Happy Halloween! ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE November 2017 Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date Quarterly Data BLS……….Productivity………….Thu, 2nd BEA……….GDP & Profits…..……Wed, 29th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Wed, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Fri, 3rd BLS………….Employment…………   Fri, 3rd Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Tue, 7th BLS…………Producer prices……. Tue, 14th Census………….Inventories………. Wed, 15th BLS……….Consumer prices.….. Wed, 15th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Thu, 16th Census………Housing starts…….Fri, 17th NAR………Existing-home sales….Tue, 21st Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 22nd Census……..New-home sales…… Mon, 27th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 28th *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce *BLS = Bureau of Continue reading

October Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  October 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date Quarterly Data BEA………….GDP…………..……Fri, 27th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Mon, 2nd BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Wed, 4th BLS………….Employment…………   Fri, 6th Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Fri, 6th BLS…………Producer prices……. Thu, 12th Census………….Inventories………. Fri, 13th BLS………….Consumer prices.…..Fri, 13th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Tue, 17th Census………Housing starts…….Wed, 18th NAR………Existing-home sales….Fri, 20th Census……..New-home sales……Wed, 25th Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 25th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 31st *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce *BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor *Census = U.S. Bureau of the Census *Conf Bd Continue reading

September Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) Here are the data you should track. The blogger remains involved in an independent research project. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  September 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS…Productivity & Costs ….Thu, 1st BEA…International transacs…Tue, 19th BEA……..….GDP ..……..…Thu, 28th BEA……..….Profits ..……..… Thu, 28th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Fri, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Wed, 6th BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 1st Fed……. Consumer credit…………Fri, 8th BLS…………Producer prices……. Wed, 13th Census………….Inventories…….. Wed, 13th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Fri, 15th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Thu, 14th Census………Housing starts…….Tue, 19th NAR………Existing-home sales….Wed, 20th Census……..New-home sales…… Tue, 26th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 26th Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 27th *BEA = Continue reading

August Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) There’s been a lot said about the economy cooling. The data will point the way. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  August 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS…Productivity & Costs ….Wed, 9th BEA……..….GDP ..……..…Wed, 30th BEA……..….Profits ..…….… Wed, 30th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Tue, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Thu, 3rd BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 4th Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Mon, 7th BLS…………Producer prices……. Fri, 10th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Fri, 11th Census………….Inventories…….. Tue, 15th Census………Housing starts…….Wed, 16th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Thu 17th Census……..New-home sales…… Wed, 23rd NAR………Existing-home sales….Thu, 24th Census……….Capital goods…….. Fri, 25th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 29th  *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis Continue reading

Research Project

The Lehmann Letter (SM) The blogger has set aside his blog in order to complete a research project. The project entails an examination of historical changes in the U.S. balance sheet and the impact of these changes on the U.S. economy. There will be periodic updates. Questions or comments? Contact Mike Lehmann at lehmannm@usfca.edu. (To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/) © 2017 Michael B. Lehmann

July Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) Can Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft drive the stock market forever? Can Jack’s beanstalk reach the sky? Doesn’t seem likely. Signs of a peak abound: High P/E ratio and a peak in profits and profit margins, high real-estate prices, stagnant residential construction and home sales, sluggish capital spending, softer auto sales, a peak in capacity utilization. See below. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  July 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BEA……..….GDP ..……..…Fri, 28th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Mon, 3rd BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Thu, 6th BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 7th Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Mon, 10th BLS…………Producer prices……. Thu, Continue reading

June Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment growth of 138,000 in May and a 4.3% unemployment rate. https://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm That’s full employment. Here’s the June schedule for a number of other economic indicators. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  June 2017  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date   Quarterly Data BLS………Productivity…………..Mon, 5th BEA….US Internat’l Transacs……Tue, 20th BEA……….GDP & Profits..…..…Thu, 29th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Thu, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Fri, 2nd BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 2nd Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Tue, 6th BLS…………Producer prices……. Tue, 13th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Wed, 14th Census………….Inventories…….. Wed, 14th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Thu, 15th Census………Housing starts…….Fri, 16th NAR………Existing-home sales….Wed, 21st Census……..New-home sales…… Fri, Continue reading

Capacity Utilization Can’t Break Loose

The Lehmann Letter (SM) On May 16 the Federal Reserve reported April’s capacity utilization at 76.7%: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm The chart reveals that capacity utilization reached 80% before the Great Recession and 85% during the 1980s and 1990s expansions. Now it’s stalled in the high 70s. Why? Partly it’s the oil and gas bust. Partly it’s the deindustrialization of America. Capacity Utilization (Recessions shaded) Here’s capacity utilization’s recent record. 2013 January        77.4 February       77.8 March           78.0 April              77.8 May              77.8 June             77.8 July              77.5 August          77.8 September    78.3 October        78.2 November     78.5 December     78.4 2014 January        78.1 February       78.8 March           79.1 April              Continue reading

The Market’s Recent Rise

The Lehmann Letter (SM) The stock market rose after the November election, buoyed by the prospects of a pro-business regime. The stock market fell this week, disappointed by events in Washington. Examine the table below. It features the stock market (S&P 500), earnings per share at an annual rate (EPS) and the price/earnings ratio (P/E). The S&P and EPS have fluctuated in a range for two years. The P/E has reached 25:1, a substantial ratio. It seems that EPS must break free and rise as a precondition for the S&P’s renewed improvement. Annually                  S&P              EPS              P/E Jan. 1, 2010            Continue reading