September Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) Will the Federal Reserve raise rates? Here are some of the data the Fed will consider. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  September 2016  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS…Productivity & Costs ….Thu, 1st BEA…International transacs…Thu, 15th BEA……..….GDP ..……..…Thu, 29th BEA……..….Profits ..……..… Thu, 29th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Thu, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Fri, 2nd BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 2nd Fed……. Consumer credit…………Thu, 8th BLS…………Producer prices……. Thu, 15th Census………….Inventories…….. Thu, 15th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Thu, 15th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Fri, 16th Census………Housing starts…….Tue, 20th NAR………Existing-home sales….Thu, 22nd Census……..New-home sales…… Mon, 26th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 27th Census……….Capital goods…….. Wed, 28th *BEA = Continue reading

Home Sales

The Lehmann Letter (SM) The July 19 letter said housing starts were meandering on a plateau. Today’s report on existing-home sales revealed the same. Yesterday’s new-home sales data showed a big jump for July: 654,000 at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate. But the chart provides perspective: We are recovering, not booming. Questions or comments? Contact Mike Lehmann at lehmannm@usfca.edu. (To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/) © 2016 Michael B. Lehmann        

Consumer Credit Pauses

The Lehmann Letter (SM) On August 5 the Federal Reserve reported that June consumer credit grew by $147.8 at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/ The chart and table reveal that this is slightly off this indicator’s heady pace. We’ll keep track of the trend. Consumer Credit (Change) (Recessions shaded) Monthly changes in consumer credit, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate: 2013 January                  $188.8 billion February                 $231.4 billion March                     $116.9 billion April                        $151.4 billion May                        $195.4 billion June                       $141.8 billion July                        $193.0 billion August                    $178.1 billion September              $200.6 billion October                  $204.2 billion November               $199.8 billion December               $190.3 billion 2014 January                  $186.6 Continue reading

Robust Employment Report

The Lehmann Letter (SM) This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July employment rose 255,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9&: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm That’s a strong report. Questions or comments? Contact Mike Lehmann at lehmannm@usfca.edu. (To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/) © 2016 Michael B. Lehmann          

Autos Industry Doing Well

The Lehmann Letter (SM) This morning the Commerce Department reported 17.8 million new-vehicle sold in July at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate: http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp (Find motor vehicles under supplemental estimates, then open spreadsheet and click on Table 6 at bottom – Column I [scroll down for latest data].) As the table below indicates, that maintains the strong sales pace that has benefited the auto industry for the past year, But the chart shows steady recovery from recession lows. Now sales have been flat for the past year. Will the industry maintain its plateau or continue the recovery to new and higher ground? Continue reading

GDP And Business Capital Expenditures

The Lehmann Letter (SM) Weak business capital expenditures have been blamed for GDP’s recent lackluster performance. (See the July 29 Letter.) New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft is a good leading indicator for business capital expenditures because it omits the volatile aviation industry. The chart shows severe cyclical fluctuations but no growth since the 2000/2001 dot-com bust. The table chronicles recent weakness. There’s no help for GDP here. New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Recessions shaded) You can find the most recent Census Bureau report at: http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft in Continue reading

August Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) There’s been a lot said about the economy cooling. The data will point the way. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE August 2016 Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date Quarterly Data BLS…Productivity & Costs ….Tue, 9th BEA……..….GDP ..……..…Fri, 26th BEA……..….Profits ..…….… Fri, 26th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Mon, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Wed, 3rd BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 5th  Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Fri, 5th Census………….Inventories…….. Fri, 12th BLS…………Producer prices……. Fri, 12th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Tue 16th Census………Housing starts…….Tue, 16th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Tue, 16th Census……..New-home sales…… Tue, 23rd NAR………Existing-home sales….Wed, 24th Census……….Capital goods…….. Thu, 25th Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 30th *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis Continue reading