June Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) The Fed says it’s thinking about raising interest rates because the economy is warming up. We’ll see. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  June 2016  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS………Productivity…………..Tue, 7th BEA….US Internat’l Transacs……Thu, 16th BEA……….GDP & Profits..…..…Tue, 28th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Wed, 1st BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Fri, 3rd BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 3rd Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Tue, 7th Census………….Inventories…….. Tue, 14th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Wed, 15th BLS…………Producer prices……. Wed, 15th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Thu, 16th Census………Housing starts…….Fri, 17th NAR………Existing-home sales….Wed, 22nd Census……..New-home sales…… Thu, 23rd Census……….Capital goods…….. Fri, 24th  Conf Bd….Consumer confidence.. Tue, 28th *BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis Continue reading

Job Growth Dips

The Lehmann Letter (SM) This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 160,000 jobs in April: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm That was weak, but it was only one month. There’s frequently noise in the data. Let’s wait before we declare a trend. Questions or comments? Contact Mike Lehmann at lehmannm@usfca.edu. (To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/) © 2016 Michael B. Lehmann          

Profit Margins Continue Fading

The Lehmann Letter (SM) The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ released its productivity report today. Nonfarm labor productivity fell in 2016’s first quarter: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm (Scroll down to the Indexes Table 2 and divide implicit price deflator by unit labor costs for the latest quarter. See table below.) As business becomes less efficient, expect eroding profit margins. Profit Margins (Recessions shaded) Profit Margins: Implicit Price Deflator / Unit Labor Costs 2013 Q I                103.1 Q II               101.8 Q III              102.4 Q IV             103.2 2014 Q I                103.2 Q II               102.7 Q III              103.0 Q IV             101.6 2015 Q I                101.1 Q II               Continue reading

May Publication Schedule

The Lehmann Letter (SM) There’s too much weakness: Earnings, profit margins, residential construction, business capital expenditures, consumer confidence, business sales and the inventory/sales ratio, capacity utilization………. The indicators are not looking up. May’s data will be important. ECONOMIC INDICATOR PUBLICATION SCHEDULE  May 2016  Source (* below)……Series Description……Day & Date  Quarterly Data BLS………Productivity & Costs…..Wed, 4th BEA…….…GDP & Profits..……Fri, 27th Monthly Data ISM..Purchasing managers’ index…Mon, 2nd BEA.New-vehicle sales.(Approximate).Tue, 3rd Fed. Consumer credit..(Approximate).Fri, 6th BLS………….Employment…….…   Fri, 6th BLS…………Producer prices……. Fri, 13th Census………….Inventories…….. Fri, 13th Fed……….Capacity utilization……Tue, 17th Census………Housing starts…….Tue, 17th BLS……….Consumer prices.……. Tue, 17th NAR………Existing-home sales….Fri, 20th Census……..New-home sales…… Tue, 24th Census……….Capital Continue reading