New Home Sales: A New Normal?

The Lehmann Letter (SM)

New-home sales fluctuated around 600,000 annually for decades. Now they are having difficulty rising over 450,000.

Yesterday the Census Bureau informed us of 438,000 new-home sales in November at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate:

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

The chart and table inform us that new-home sales have been flat for almost a year.

New Home Sales

5.9 New Home Sales 05-23-14

Recessions Shaded

Here are the seasonally adjusted data at an annual rate:

2013

January        453,000

February       448,000

March           440,000

April              452,000

May              431,000

June             459,000

July              367,000

August          379,000

September    399,000

October        450,000

November     445,000

December     442,000

2014

January        457,000

February       432,000

March           403,000

April              413,000

May              458,000

June             409,000

July              399,000

August          448,000

September    455,000

October        445,000

November     438,000

Is this the new normal?

(To be fully informed visit http://www.beyourowneconomist.com/)

© 2014 Michael B. Lehmann